http://www.journalgazette.net/article/20090502/NEWS10/305029993/1005/NEWS10
Many flu mysteries difficult to unravel
Eric CarvinAssociated Press
Government officials, public health experts and business leaders have faced a lot of questions about swine flu this week, and three words keep popping up in their answers: “We don’t know.”
The flu outbreak has spawned many mysteries – about origin, scope and impact, just for starters – and some of the most fundamental questions remain unanswered, or unanswerable.
Here’s some of what we don’t know.
Q. How many people have had the virus?
A. A lot of numbers have bubbled up – more than 100 lab-confirmed cases in the United States, more than 300 in Mexico, and dozens more in a few other countries. And then there are the suspected cases – thousands in Mexico alone.
But the real number of infections around the world is impossible to know, because many people may get better without ever seeing a doctor. Even among the lab-confirmed cases, many people have had only mild symptoms.
Q. How big will this get?
A. We probably won’t know the answer until scientists figure out how easily the virus spreads and how often it kills. Then, they might be able to project more accurately what damage the outbreak might cause.
An influenza outbreak can spread rapidly and unpredictably. The swine flu has taken hold in densely populated areas – such as Mexico City, home to 20 million people – where it can spread at an alarming rate. And the disease has popped up in many parts of the world, thanks to easy travel.
Even the public health experts most plugged into swine flu don’t want to speculate about the ultimate scope of the outbreak.
Q. When and where did it start?
A. The virus may have mutated into its current form months or even a year ago, and it happened, well, somewhere in the world.
The first symptoms started to show up in early March in the Mexican state of Veracruz.
The earliest confirmed case was a 5-year-old boy, one of hundreds of people in the town of La Gloria whose flu symptoms left them struggling to breathe.
People from La Gloria kept going to jobs in Mexico City despite their illnesses, and could have infected people there.
Still, there’s no guarantee the virus came into existence in Veracruz. It spreads so easily, it could have made its way to Mexico from just about anywhere.
Some Mexican officials have offered some other suggestions of places where the virus may have begun, such as China, Pakistan or Bangladesh. But the fact is that the flu’s origin remains a mystery.
Q. Why have so many people died in Mexico, but virtually nobody anywhere else?
A. A swarm of public health experts – including several from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – have descended upon Mexico in search of an answer. This is especially a head-scratcher because experts have found no difference in samples of the virus collected in Mexico and the United States.
One theory is that many more people have had the virus in Mexico than health officials realize, and the number of cases there could well eclipse the number anywhere else in the world. If so, that country’s death toll – more than a dozen confirmed deaths and many more suspected ones – would make sense.
Q. Will changes in the WHO alert level help stem the outbreak?
A. That’s the idea, but it’s unclear what concrete actions are actually taken by WHO and countries with a change in the alert level – which was bumped up on Wednesday to Phase 5, one step away from the highest level, which indicates a global outbreak.
The alert levels mainly signify WHO’s assessment of the pandemic situation, but they do come with actions and responsibilities. At the higher alert levels, WHO is essentially warning countries to prepare for a pandemic.
The alert system, however, is largely untested. Monday was the first time it had ever been raised above Phase 3, which signifies only occasional cases or small clusters of a new flu virus.
Many flu mysteries difficult to unravel
Eric CarvinAssociated Press
Government officials, public health experts and business leaders have faced a lot of questions about swine flu this week, and three words keep popping up in their answers: “We don’t know.”
The flu outbreak has spawned many mysteries – about origin, scope and impact, just for starters – and some of the most fundamental questions remain unanswered, or unanswerable.
Here’s some of what we don’t know.
Q. How many people have had the virus?
A. A lot of numbers have bubbled up – more than 100 lab-confirmed cases in the United States, more than 300 in Mexico, and dozens more in a few other countries. And then there are the suspected cases – thousands in Mexico alone.
But the real number of infections around the world is impossible to know, because many people may get better without ever seeing a doctor. Even among the lab-confirmed cases, many people have had only mild symptoms.
Q. How big will this get?
A. We probably won’t know the answer until scientists figure out how easily the virus spreads and how often it kills. Then, they might be able to project more accurately what damage the outbreak might cause.
An influenza outbreak can spread rapidly and unpredictably. The swine flu has taken hold in densely populated areas – such as Mexico City, home to 20 million people – where it can spread at an alarming rate. And the disease has popped up in many parts of the world, thanks to easy travel.
Even the public health experts most plugged into swine flu don’t want to speculate about the ultimate scope of the outbreak.
Q. When and where did it start?
A. The virus may have mutated into its current form months or even a year ago, and it happened, well, somewhere in the world.
The first symptoms started to show up in early March in the Mexican state of Veracruz.
The earliest confirmed case was a 5-year-old boy, one of hundreds of people in the town of La Gloria whose flu symptoms left them struggling to breathe.
People from La Gloria kept going to jobs in Mexico City despite their illnesses, and could have infected people there.
Still, there’s no guarantee the virus came into existence in Veracruz. It spreads so easily, it could have made its way to Mexico from just about anywhere.
Some Mexican officials have offered some other suggestions of places where the virus may have begun, such as China, Pakistan or Bangladesh. But the fact is that the flu’s origin remains a mystery.
Q. Why have so many people died in Mexico, but virtually nobody anywhere else?
A. A swarm of public health experts – including several from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – have descended upon Mexico in search of an answer. This is especially a head-scratcher because experts have found no difference in samples of the virus collected in Mexico and the United States.
One theory is that many more people have had the virus in Mexico than health officials realize, and the number of cases there could well eclipse the number anywhere else in the world. If so, that country’s death toll – more than a dozen confirmed deaths and many more suspected ones – would make sense.
Q. Will changes in the WHO alert level help stem the outbreak?
A. That’s the idea, but it’s unclear what concrete actions are actually taken by WHO and countries with a change in the alert level – which was bumped up on Wednesday to Phase 5, one step away from the highest level, which indicates a global outbreak.
The alert levels mainly signify WHO’s assessment of the pandemic situation, but they do come with actions and responsibilities. At the higher alert levels, WHO is essentially warning countries to prepare for a pandemic.
The alert system, however, is largely untested. Monday was the first time it had ever been raised above Phase 3, which signifies only occasional cases or small clusters of a new flu virus.
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Muchos de gripe difícil de desentrañar los misterios
Eric CarvinAssociated Prensa
Funcionarios gubernamentales, expertos en salud pública y los líderes empresariales se han enfrentado a un montón de preguntas sobre la gripe porcina de esta semana, tres palabras y seguir apareciendo en sus respuestas: "No sabemos".
El brote de gripe ha generado muchos misterios - sobre el origen, alcance y efectos, sólo para comenzar - y algunas de las preguntas más fundamentales siguen sin respuesta, o discusión.
He aquí algunas de las cosas que no sabemos.
P. ¿Cuántas personas han tenido el virus?
A. Una gran cantidad de números de burbujas - más de 100 casos confirmados por laboratorio en los Estados Unidos, más de 300 en Mexico, y docenas más en algunos otros países. Y luego están los casos sospechosos - miles de personas en Mexico solo.
Pero el número real de infecciones en todo el mundo es imposible saber, ya que muchas personas pueden obtener cada vez mejores, sin ver a un médico. Incluso entre los casos confirmados por laboratorio, muchas personas han tenido sólo síntomas leves.
P. ¿Cómo va a obtener grandes?
R. Probablemente no sabe la respuesta hasta que los científicos sepan cómo el virus se propaga fácilmente y con qué frecuencia mata. Entonces, podrían ser capaces de proyectar con mayor precisión qué daño puede causar el estallido.
Un brote de gripe pueden propagar rápidamente y de forma impredecible. La gripe porcina se ha afianzado en las zonas densamente pobladas - tales como la Ciudad de México, hogar de 20 millones de personas - en caso de que se puede propagar a un ritmo alarmante. Y la enfermedad ha aparecido en muchas partes del mundo, gracias a un fácil viaje.
Incluso los expertos en salud pública más enchufado a la gripe porcina no quiero especular sobre el alcance final del brote.
P. ¿Cuándo y dónde empieza?
A. El virus puede haber mutado en su forma actual, meses o incluso hace un año, y pasó, así, en algún lugar del mundo.
Los primeros síntomas comenzaron a aparecer a principios de marzo en el estado mexicano de Veracruz.
El primer caso confirmado es un 5-años de edad, uno de cientos de personas en la ciudad de La Gloria cuyos síntomas de la gripe dejado luchando por respirar.
La gente de La Gloria siguió su camino a los puestos de trabajo en la Ciudad de México, a pesar de sus enfermedades, y podrían tener las personas infectadas por allí.
Sin embargo, no hay garantía de que el virus entró en existencia en Veracruz. Se propaga con tanta facilidad, se podría haber hecho su camino a Mexico desde casi cualquier lugar.
Algunos funcionarios mexicanos han ofrecido algunas otras sugerencias de lugares donde el virus puede haber comenzado, como China, Pakistán o Bangladesh. Pero el hecho es que la gripe de origen sigue siendo un misterio.
P. ¿Por qué tantas personas han muerto en Mexico, pero prácticamente nadie en ninguna otra parte?
A. Un enjambre de expertos en salud pública - entre ellos varios de los EE.UU. Centros para el Control y Prevención de Enfermedades - han descendido a Mexico en busca de una respuesta. Esto es especialmente una cabeza scratcher porque los expertos no han encontrado diferencias en las muestras del virus recogidas en Mexico y los Estados Unidos.
Una teoría es que muchas más personas han tenido el virus en Mexico que realizar los funcionarios de salud, y el número de casos podría eclipsar el número en cualquier parte del mundo. Si es así, que el número de muertos del país - más de una docena de muertos confirmados y muchos más sospechosos que - tendría sentido.
P. ¿Los cambios en el nivel de alerta de la OMS ayudará a frenar el brote?
A. Eso s la idea, pero es claro qué medidas concretas se toman realmente por la OMS y los países con un cambio en el nivel de alerta - que fue golpeado hasta el miércoles a la fase 5, a un paso de más alto nivel, que indica que hay un brote mundial.
Los niveles de alerta de la OMS significa principalmente la evaluación de la situación de pandemia, sino que vienen con las acciones y responsabilidades. En los más altos niveles de alerta, la OMS es esencialmente de alerta a los países a prepararse para una pandemia.
El sistema de alerta, sin embargo, es en gran medida a prueba. Lunes fue la primera vez que había sido planteada por encima de la Fase 3, lo que significa sólo ocasionalmente casos o pequeños grupos de un nuevo virus de la gripe.
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